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Tesla Q3 2026 earnings

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How did Tesla do in Q3 2026?

The Q3 2026 financial results are not in Brighter Finance yet. Tesla is scheduled to post them after the close on Oct 21, 2026, and to hold its webcast at 2:30 PM PT. What is already published is the Oct 2 production and deliveries release: 486,532 vehicles delivered, 464,391 produced, and 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployed. Revenue, profit, call quotes, and guidance stay blank until the shareholder update, the transcript, and the 10-Q are in the library.

Figures

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What are the key numbers?

Operating figures already in the delivery and chart files are below. TODO: financial key numbers versus last quarter are not on the Q3 2026 earnings-calls row yet.

Figures

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What did Elon Musk say on the call?

TODO: no timestamped call quotes for Q3 2026 are in the earnings-calls module. This section will list speaker, timestamp, and the line once that field is filled from the transcript.

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What did the call say about Robotaxi, Optimus and energy?

TODO: guidance and call commentary for Robotaxi, Optimus, and energy are not stored for Q3 2026. Energy storage deployed is 13.7 GWh in the delivery file. Optimus unit production was still undisclosed in the Q2 2026 shareholder update.

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How did the odds move?

Brighter Finance did not publish a vehicle-count forecast. On Sep 27, 2026 the average chance of more than 500,000 Q3 deliveries was 36% (Astra 40%, Fable 35%, Grok 34%). Tesla later reported 486,532 vehicles, and the question resolved NO. Kalshi's stored yes price for Q3 deliveries above 500,000 was 14% as of Sep 30, 2026. No later forecast edition is stored, so this page cannot show a before-and-after move from the earnings call.

Figures

Will Tesla report over 1.6 million active FSD subscriptions in Q3?

42% average chance

  • Astra 45%
  • Fable 42%
  • Grok 40%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports active FSD subscriptions strictly greater than 1.60 million at quarter-end. Exactly 1.60 million is NO. Use Tesla's active FSD subscriptions definition in the Q2 2026 update. If the definition changes materially or the metric is omitted, leave unresolved. Do not substitute robotaxi riders or miles driven. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla deliver more than 500,000 vehicles in Q3?

36% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 35%
  • Grok 34%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Resolved NO on Oct 2, 2026: 486,532 vehicles reported.

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 production and deliveries release reports total vehicle deliveries strictly greater than 500,000 for July-September 2026. Exactly 500,000 is NO. Use the company total, not production or registrations. If no official figure is available by October 31, leave unresolved; do not infer NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla vehicle inventory fall below 15 days in Q3?

47% average chance

  • Astra 45%
  • Fable 45%
  • Grok 50%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports global vehicle inventory days of supply strictly less than 15 at quarter-end. Exactly 15 days is NO. Use the company's reported global vehicle inventory days of supply and its published precision. Do not substitute inventory dollars or calculate days from registrations. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla deploy more than 13.5 GWh of storage in Q3?

52% average chance

  • Astra 47%
  • Fable 58%
  • Grok 50%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Resolved YES on Oct 2, 2026: 13.7 GWh reported.

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 release reports energy storage deployments strictly greater than 13.5 GWh for July-September 2026. Exactly 13.5 GWh is NO. Manufacturing capacity, orders and revenue do not count. If not disclosed by October 31, leave unresolved. Use the published precision and do not infer unrounded values.

Resolution source

Will Tesla energy revenue exceed $3.5 billion in Q3?

39% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 35%
  • Grok 41%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports energy generation and storage revenue strictly greater than $3,500 million. Exactly $3,500 million is NO. Use the reported segment revenue, not storage deployments, order backlog or total company revenue. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla produce more than 480,000 vehicles in Q3?

40% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 40%
  • Grok 40%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Resolved NO on Oct 2, 2026: 464,391 vehicles reported.

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 production and deliveries release reports total vehicle production strictly greater than 480,000 for July-September 2026. Exactly 480,000 is NO. Use total production across models, not deliveries or installed annual capacity. If not disclosed by October 31, leave unresolved; later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla revenue exceed $30 billion in Q3?

41% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 42%
  • Grok 40%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports total revenues strictly greater than $30,000 million. Exactly $30,000 million is NO. Use consolidated revenue, not automotive revenue alone. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla auto gross margin exceed 17% without credits in Q3?

39% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 37%
  • Grok 40%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit sales strictly greater than 17.0%. Exactly 17.0% is NO. Use the explicitly disclosed non-GAAP margin and published precision. Do not substitute total GAAP gross margin or infer an unreported figure. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla return to positive free cash flow in Q3?

44% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 50%
  • Grok 42%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports free cash flow strictly greater than zero. Zero is NO. Use Tesla's disclosed free cash flow measure: operating cash flow less capital expenditures. Do not substitute net income or the change in cash balance. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

Will Tesla have more than 85,000 Supercharger connectors in Q3?

54% average chance

  • Astra 50%
  • Fable 55%
  • Grok 58%

Forecasts as of Sep 27, 2026. Closes Sep 30, 2026. Awaiting outcome

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports Supercharger connectors strictly greater than 85,000 at quarter-end. Exactly 85,000 is NO. Count reported Supercharger connectors worldwide, not stations or planned installations. The period is July-September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Resolution source

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What's next?

The next dated Tesla catalyst list is the public catalysts page. Brighter Finance does not add a following earnings date until Tesla's own investor relations release names it.

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What is still missing from this page?

These items are marked TODO because the source files do not include them. Nothing here is filled with an estimate. TODO: add Q3 2026 key numbers versus the prior quarter on the earnings-calls row, from the shareholder deck or the 10-Q. TODO: add Q3 2026 call quotes with speaker and timestamp. The module has no Call quotes field for this quarter. TODO: add Q3 2026 guidance from the call once it is stored on the earnings-calls row. TODO: record Prediction Room odds after the Q3 2026 call. The stored forecasts are the pre-close edition only. TODO: add a Brighter Finance vehicle-count forecast if one is published. The deliveries question is a yes-or-no threshold, not a point forecast. TODO: update this page when the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q is filed and linked from the earnings-calls module.

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