What did Tesla's Q3 earnings call say about Megapacks for 2027?
Published . Updated . JUST RECORDED: Elon SHOCKS Wall Street On Tesla Earnings.
What is the short answer?
Tesla said it is almost sold out of Megapacks for 2027, and third-quarter vehicle demand exceeded production by a significant margin. Deliveries were over 480,000 for a second straight quarter, over 75% of North American deliveries included a paid FSD signup, and unsupervised robotaxi miles grew 8x, with Dallas planned next and customer vehicles potentially joining around Q2 next year. Tesla started early high-volume Optimus production in Fremont, expects about 20,000 units a week after at least a year of ramping, and still treats external deliveries around the end of next year as a forecast. It began Semi production in the third quarter, did the new Roadster demo, and is aiming for about 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030. The Austin Terafab research fab is planned to commission machinery in the first half of next year, a first test chip is hoped for around May or June if the work goes well, useful chip production around Q3 2028 is an aspiration, and Terafab capital equipment through early 2028 was described as tens of billions of dollars. Several of those timelines remain forecasts.
Research and education, not investment advice. Brighter Finance is not affiliated with Tesla, SpaceX or Elon Musk.
What did the episode report?
Each line is a news item stored with this episode. The date is the day the video was published. Timing words in a line are copied from the episode.
Tesla vehicle demand exceeds production by a significant margin.
Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It's exceeding our production by a significant margin
Tesla began producing Semi trucks during the third quarter.
We also began production of the Tesla Semi in Q3
Tesla said it did the new Roadster demo.
and did the new Roadster demo
Tesla is aiming for about 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030.
we're I think aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030
Tesla is almost sold out of Megapacks for 2027.
We're actually almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027
Tesla started early high-volume Optimus production in Fremont.
we've started like what I'd call early production on our high volume line in Fremont
Tesla expects about 20,000 Optimus units a week after at least a year of ramping, maybe a little longer.
a million unit per line production line landed in Fremont right now, but it I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer to get to that annualized rate to get to 20,000 units a week.
Tesla hopes its Austin research fab can make a first test chip around May or June, if things go well.
hopefully if things go well, we'll make our first test chip just to see if we can make any chip at all around May or June
Tesla reported two consecutive quarters of vehicle deliveries over 480,000, and started Megapack deliveries with in-house LFP batteries.
we also started deliveries of Megapacks with our in-house LFP batteries and for the first time two consecutive quarters of vehicle deliveries of over 480K.
Over 75% of North American deliveries in Q3 included a signup for paid FSD at delivery.
In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign up for paid FSD subscription at the time of delivery, which is approximately 20% higher than Q2.
Tesla unsupervised robotaxi miles grew 8x during the quarter.
Cumulative unsupervised miles 8x in the quarter as we had weekly double-digit growth throughout the quarter.
From the show discussion
These lines restate points from the show discussion. They are not a Brighter Finance forecast, and they are not investment advice.
- The discussion argued that demand exceeded production, making manufacturing capacity a central near-term constraint.
- The discussion argued that FSD adoption and robotaxi expansion are key monetization catalysts, but regulatory and software hurdles remain.
- The discussion argued that Optimus and Terafab carry substantial execution risk, long timelines, and potentially very large capital requirements.
Where is the video?
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