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Tesla Optimus

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When can I buy an Optimus robot?

It depends, and Tesla has not named a customer sale date. As of Dec 2026, Tesla says first units are for Optimus Academy training-data collection, not customer shipments. That row is a target, not a sale. As of Dec 2026, Tesla's Q2 2026 update says Fremont production is "anticipated later this year". As of Jul 2026, Tesla's 2026 Q1/Q2 updates disclose no Optimus production count.

Figures

Full odds history, all 110 charts and alerts: members. Members

Timeline so far

Every Optimus row in the business line milestones file is below. Dates use the precision stored on the row, so a month is not given a day. Target rows use the target date. As of Jul 2026, the file still has no production count.

Optimus milestones from the business line milestones file. As of Jul 2026 for the latest company update in that file.
DateKindMilestoneDetailSource
May 2026HappenedModel S/X production endsFremont ends Model S after 14 years and Model X after 11 years, clearing legacy S/X floor space for Optimus.Business Insider final Model S/X coverage
Jul 2026HappenedModel S/X line dismantledOutside coverage of Tesla's time-lapse says the original S/X line was decommissioned in 46 days for Optimus prep.Yahoo Finance teardown coverage
Jul 2026HappenedFirst Optimus lines being installedTesla's Q2 2026 update says first-generation Optimus lines are being installed at Fremont.Tesla Q2 2026 shareholder update
Jul 2026HappenedUnits produced to date: none disclosedTesla's 2026 Q1/Q2 updates disclose no Optimus production count.Tesla Q2 2026 shareholder update
Dec 2026TargetFremont production windowTesla's Q2 2026 update says Fremont production is "anticipated later this year".Tesla Q2 2026 shareholder update
Dec 2026TargetFirst builds stay in-houseTesla says first units are for Optimus Academy training-data collection, not customer shipments.Tesla Q2 2026 shareholder update
Jul 2026Happened2026 unit target not disclosedOutside estimates exist, but Tesla's Q1/Q2 updates do not disclose a 2026 Optimus unit target.Tesla Q2 2026 shareholder update
Apr 2026TargetFremont design capacity: 1M/yrQ1 update says Fremont's first-generation Optimus lines are designed for 1M robots/year at volume.Tesla Q1 2026 shareholder update
Apr 2026TargetGiga Texas second-generation line: 10M/yr designQ1 update says Gigafactory Texas is being prepared for a second-generation line designed for long-term annual capacity of 10 million robots. No start date is given.Tesla Q1 2026 shareholder update

Full odds history, all 110 charts and alerts: members. Members

What Tesla has promised vs. delivered

Happened rows are events the sources describe as done. Target rows are capacity or timing statements, not shipments. No row gives a customer sale date or a unit count. A design capacity is not a count of robots built.

Figures

  • Delivered: Model S/X production endsMay 2026. Fremont ends Model S after 14 years and Model X after 11 years, clearing legacy S/X floor space for Optimus.
  • Delivered: Model S/X line dismantledJul 2026. Outside coverage of Tesla's time-lapse says the original S/X line was decommissioned in 46 days for Optimus prep.
  • Delivered: First Optimus lines being installedJul 2026. Tesla's Q2 2026 update says first-generation Optimus lines are being installed at Fremont.
  • Delivered: Units produced to date: none disclosedJul 2026. Tesla's 2026 Q1/Q2 updates disclose no Optimus production count.
  • Delivered: 2026 unit target not disclosedJul 2026. Outside estimates exist, but Tesla's Q1/Q2 updates do not disclose a 2026 Optimus unit target.
  • Target: Fremont production windowDec 2026. Tesla's Q2 2026 update says Fremont production is "anticipated later this year".
  • Target: First builds stay in-houseDec 2026. Tesla says first units are for Optimus Academy training-data collection, not customer shipments.
  • Target: Fremont design capacity: 1M/yrApr 2026. Q1 update says Fremont's first-generation Optimus lines are designed for 1M robots/year at volume.
  • Target: Giga Texas second-generation line: 10M/yr designApr 2026. Q1 update says Gigafactory Texas is being prepared for a second-generation line designed for long-term annual capacity of 10 million robots. No start date is given.

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Current odds

These are all 3 Optimus questions in the Prediction Room, as of Oct 21, 2026. Each card is the current brief. Full history stays with members.

Will Tesla produce over 1,000 Optimus robots in 2026?

29% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 30%
  • Grok 18%

Forecasts as of Oct 21, 2026. Closes Dec 31, 2026. Open

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla reports more than 1,000 completed Optimus robots manufactured worldwide during January 1-December 31, 2026 (Pacific Time). NO if the comparable annual count is 1,000 or fewer. Include completed training and deployment units across generations, counted once; exclude unfinished assemblies, rebuilds of already-counted units, installed capacity and planned production. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Resolution source

Will Tesla deploy over 100 Optimus robots in factory operations by the end of Q1 2027?

30% average chance

  • Astra 40%
  • Fable 27%
  • Grok 24%

Forecasts as of Oct 21, 2026. Closes Mar 31, 2027. Open

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla reports more than 100 distinct Optimus robots deployed in recurring production or logistics work at Tesla factories worldwide as of March 31, 2027 (Pacific Time). NO if the comparable quarter-end count is 100 or fewer. Count each robot once across tasks and sites; exclude storage, training-only units, Optimus Academy data collection, laboratory trials and one-off demonstrations. Do not substitute cumulative shipments or robots manufactured. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Resolution source

Will Tesla report Optimus completing an eight-hour factory shift autonomously by the end of Q1 2027?

14% average chance

  • Astra 18%
  • Fable 8%
  • Grok 15%

Forecasts as of Oct 21, 2026. Closes Mar 31, 2027. Open

Resolution rule: YES if Tesla explicitly documents that, by March 31, 2027 (Pacific Time), at least one Optimus robot completed a single factory production or logistics shift lasting at least eight consecutive hours, performing its assigned work without teleoperation, physical human assistance or human task-level intervention. Autonomous charging and scheduled breaks may occur within the shift; a demonstration, training-only session or edited video alone does not qualify. NO only if Tesla explicitly states that no robot achieved this defined milestone by the deadline. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Resolution source

Full odds history, all 110 charts and alerts: members. Members

FAQ

Tesla has not given a customer sale date in the milestone file. Targets and delivered events are separate rows above. The odds are the Optimus questions only.

Full odds history, all 110 charts and alerts: members. Members

What is still missing from this page?

These items are marked TODO because the source files do not include them. Nothing here is filled with an estimate. TODO: add an Optimus unit series. The milestone file records no production count, and the metric series file has no Optimus units. TODO: add a customer sale date if Tesla publishes one. None of the milestone rows names one. TODO: publish Optimus deck chart images. Those images are served only to members, and this page has no public unit series to draw.

Full odds history, all 110 charts and alerts: members. Members