[{"id":"level-5-autonomy-2021","company":"tesla","topic":"fsd","promise":"Confident Tesla reaches Level 5 autonomy in 2021","quote":"","saidDate":"2021-01-27","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"in 2021","deadlineDate":"2021-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026066738/tsla-20261021-gen.pdf","label":"Tesla Q3 update"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Current sources do not establish the full Level 5 outcome; no missed status inferred.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"robotaxi-volume-production-2024","company":"tesla","topic":"robotaxi","promise":"Dedicated robotaxi (no wheel or pedals), aspire to volume production in 2024","quote":"We are aiming for volume production in 2024.","saidDate":"2022-04-20","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2022-4-20-tesla-inc-stock/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"in 2024","deadlineDate":"2024-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-04-25","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-cybercab-begins-production/","label":"CNET production report"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Production started by April 2026, but the cited report describes a slow ramp, not volume production. Partial fulfillment only.","status":"partial","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"grok-3-end-2024","company":"xai","topic":"ai","promise":"Grok 3 by end of year","quote":"","saidDate":"2024-07-01","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1807643760584708363","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"end of year","deadlineDate":"2024-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2025-02-17","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/17/elon-musks-ai-company-xai-releases-its-latest-flagship-ai-grok-3/","label":"TechCrunch release report"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/musk-posts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Release and date confirmed in the report.","status":"late","daysLate":48,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"starship-mars-uncrewed-2026","company":"spacex","topic":"mars","promise":"First uncrewed Starships to Mars at the next transfer window (~2 years)","quote":"","saidDate":"2024-09-07","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"in 2 years","deadlineDate":"2026-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"interpreted","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2020640004628742577","label":"X post (outcome unverified)"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/spacex-catalysts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Only an X post supplied as outcome evidence; outcome unverified.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"grok-3-5-beta-next-week","company":"xai","topic":"ai","promise":"Grok 3.5 early beta to SuperGrok \"next week\"","quote":"","saidDate":"2025-04-29","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1917099777327829386","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"Next week","deadlineDate":"2025-05-06","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1917099777327829386","label":"X post (outcome unverified)"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/musk-posts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"No independent outcome evidence confirmed.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"starlink-v3-on-starship","company":"spacex","topic":"starlink","promise":"V3 Starlink satellites start launching on Starship in 6–9 months","quote":"","saidDate":"2025-05-31","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1928929070047440901","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"6 to 9 months","deadlineDate":"2026-02-28","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1928929070047440901","label":"X post (outcome unverified)"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/spacex-catalysts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"No independent V3 launch evidence confirmed.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"autonomous-delivery-june-28-2025","company":"tesla","topic":"fsd","promise":"First Tesla to drive itself from factory to a customer's house on June 28","quote":"","saidDate":"2025-06-11","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932591896939147494","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"June 28","deadlineDate":"2025-06-28","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2025-06-27","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://www.theverge.com/news/694801/tesla-autonomous-delivery-factory-customer-robotaxi","label":"The Verge delivery report"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Report dated June 28 says delivery happened a day early on Friday, June 27. This is one delivery, not general availability.","status":"delivered","daysLate":0,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"fsd-unsupervised-personal-end-2025","company":"tesla","topic":"fsd","promise":"Unsupervised FSD for personal use by end of year, in certain geographies","quote":"","saidDate":"2025-07-23","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"by the end of this year","deadlineDate":"2025-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026066738/tsla-20261021-gen.pdf","label":"Tesla Q3 update"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"The checked update does not establish availability of unsupervised personal-use FSD.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"robotaxi-half-us-population-2025","company":"tesla","topic":"robotaxi","promise":"Robotaxi service covering about half the US population by end of 2025","quote":"half the population of the US","saidDate":"2025-07-23","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"by the end of the year","deadlineDate":"2025-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026049213/tsla-20260722-gen.pdf","label":"Tesla Q2 update"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"City rollout evidence does not establish the share of the US population covered.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"optimus-production-early-2026","company":"tesla","topic":"optimus","promise":"Optimus production starts early next year","quote":"We will start production on that at the beginning of next year.","saidDate":"2025-07-23","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"at the beginning of next year","deadlineDate":"2026-06-30","deadlinePrecision":"interpreted","evidenceDate":"2026-09-30","evidencePrecision":"quarter","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026066738/tsla-20261021-gen.pdf","label":"Tesla Q3 update"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-optimus","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Tesla Q3 update confirms production began during the quarter, not an exact day. Evidence date is the quarter end; no exact days-late value is reported.","status":"late","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"robotaxi-no-safety-driver-end-2025","company":"tesla","topic":"robotaxi","promise":"No safety driver by end of year","quote":"","saidDate":"2025-09-04","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963637208490856928","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"by end of year","deadlineDate":"2025-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-01-22","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/22/tesla-launches-robotaxi-rides-in-austin-with-no-human-safety-driver/","label":"TechCrunch driver-out report"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"First customer rides without an in-car safety monitor reported January 22. Limited rollout; this does not establish general availability.","status":"late","daysLate":22,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"cybercab-production-april-2026","company":"tesla","topic":"cybercab","promise":"\"We expect to start production in April\"","quote":"We expect to start production in April.","saidDate":"2026-01-28","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"in April","deadlineDate":"2026-04-30","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-04-25","evidencePrecision":"by","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-cybercab-begins-production/","label":"CNET production report"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"CNET dated April 25 reports production was already underway that week. Completion is confirmed within the target month; exact first production day is not asserted.","status":"delivered","daysLate":0,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"autonomy-quarter-half-us-2026","company":"tesla","topic":"robotaxi","promise":"Fully autonomous vehicles in a quarter to half of the US by end of year, pending regulatory approval","quote":"","saidDate":"2026-01-28","saidSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript","type":"transcript"},"deadlineText":"by the end of the year","deadlineDate":"2026-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"Earnings call transcript"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/tesla-robotaxi","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Future target confirmed in transcript; outcome remains unverified.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"neuralink-3x-2026","company":"neuralink","topic":"other","promise":"Next-gen Neuralink implant with 3X capability ready later this year","quote":"","saidDate":"2026-01-28","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2016575739655504070","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"later this year","deadlineDate":"2026-12-31","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2016575739655504070","label":"X post (outcome unverified)"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/musk-posts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Optional Neuralink scope. Only X evidence; outcome unverified.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"roadster-unveil-april-2026","company":"tesla","topic":"roadster","promise":"New Roadster unveil \"hopefully next month\" (also \"hoping to debut in April\" on the Q4 2025 call)","quote":"","saidDate":"2026-03-17","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2033884214031225043","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"hopefully next month","deadlineDate":"2026-04-30","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-10-16","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/1016/1595598-teslas-new-roadster-turns-in-air-with-spacex-thrusters/","label":"RTÉ reveal report"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/musk-posts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Reveal and date confirmed in RTÉ report. This measures unveiling, not deliveries. Earlier April 1 target omitted because its primary source is not confirmed.","status":"late","daysLate":169,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"starship-ship-catch-few-months","company":"spacex","topic":"starship","promise":"Probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months; first ship reflight end of 2026 or early 2027","quote":"","saidDate":"2026-08-20","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2090305535937851863","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"in a few months","deadlineDate":"2026-11-18","deadlinePrecision":"interpreted","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2115634093949911506","label":"X post (outcome unverified)"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/spacex-catalysts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Catch and reflight are separate milestones; this row scores the catch only. Deadline interprets a few months as 90 days. X-only outcome evidence.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},{"id":"starship-hourly-2-3-years","company":"spacex","topic":"starship","promise":"Starship 2–3 years from hourly flights","quote":"","saidDate":"2026-09-27","saidSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2104241521746649165","label":"Musk on X","type":"x_post"},"deadlineText":"2 to 3 years away","deadlineDate":"2029-09-27","deadlinePrecision":"day","evidenceDate":"2026-11-03","evidencePrecision":"day","evidenceSource":{"url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2104241521746649165","label":"X post (outcome unverified)"},"history":[],"relatedPage":"/spacex-catalysts","lastChecked":"2026-11-03","notes":"Upper end of the stated two-to-three-year window. X-only outcome evidence.","status":"unverified","daysLate":null,"asOf":"2026-11-03","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}]